Neighbours and shifting alliances: T&T/USA/Venezuela relations

MASX
1 day ago
3 min read

Trinidad and Tobago sits just across the water from Venezuela — the two countries share a maritime border and a long—though at times tense—history of cooperation and interaction. Historically, they shared cultural, economic, and geographical links. But in recent months, the relationship has been strained.

At the same time, the U.S. has stepped up its military and diplomatic involvement in the southern Caribbean, citing concerns over drug-trafficking, national security, and the role of Venezuela. These developments implicate Trinidad and Tobago due to its proximity and regional ties.

Key flashpoints

U.S. military strikes and build-up in the Caribbean: The U.S. has been conducting maritime and air operations targeting boats and vessels it alleges are carrying narcotics from Venezuelan territory into Caribbean waters. These actions extend into areas near T&T and have heightened regional risk perceptions.
Moreover, Venezuela has issued warnings to its neighbours, including T&T, cautioning them against hosting U.S. operations or bases.
T&T-Venezuela diplomatic tensions: Relations between T&T and Venezuela worsened in 2025 following incidents such as a Venezuelan accusation of “mercenaries” travelling from T&T into Venezuela, and T&T’s firm response, including threats to use force if Venezuelan vessels entered its waters. Trade and passenger traffic between the two countries have also dropped significantly, reflecting the diplomatic chill.
Energy and sanctions complications: T&T had been involved in planning offshore gas projects with Venezuela (notably the “Dragon” gas‐field) as its domestic reserves decline. But U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and U.S. revocation of licences have disrupted those plans. Recently, the U.S. offered T&T a more limited licence to negotiate with Venezuela over the gas deal, but it remains subject to caveats.
Safety and security alerts: Because of the elevated tensions, the U.S. Embassy to T&T issued warnings to U.S. citizens in T&T to stay away from certain facilities and monitor their surroundings, citing threats linked to the regional situation.

What it means for Trinidad & Tobago

For T&T, the situation is a balancing act:

On one hand, T&T appears to align more closely with U.S. policy in the region (for example, T&T’s support of U.S. anti-drug efforts and its willingness to work with U.S. on energy-sanction related matters).
On the other hand, T&T must manage its relationship with its immediate neighbour, Venezuela, which is of direct relevance – geographically, economically and socially. The drop in trade/passenger traffic and the atmosphere of mistrust are tangible negatives.
There are risks: increased military activity in the southern Caribbean raises the likelihood of mis-calculation or spill-over; Venezuelan warnings suggest that if T&T is viewed as a staging ground for U.S. action, T&T could face retaliatory pressure.
There are opportunities, especially around energy: if the U.S. allows T&T to engage with Venezuela under the right terms, that could help T&T’s energy sector. But that is contingent and fragile.

Outlook

In the near term:

The military/diplomatic pressure from the U.S. on Venezuela is likely to persist given U.S. policy statements and ongoing operations.
T&T will continue to be drawn into this dynamic — not just as a passive neighbour, but as a country with its own strategic interests (energy, security, trade).
If the U.S.-Venezuela confrontation escalates further (e.g., more strikes, larger deployments), T&T may face harder choices: whether to deepen cooperation with the U.S. or distance itself to preserve its relations with Venezuela.
The energy front remains a key wildcard: successful negotiation of the gas project with Venezuela (under U.S. sanction constraints) could shift T&T’s position; failure may deepen T&T’s dependence on other options or expose vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

The triangle of Trinidad and Tobago — the United States — Venezuela is at a tense juncture. T&T finds itself sandwiched between a powerful neighbour to the south with whom it must maintain stable relations, and a super‐power to the north whose regional agenda increasingly overlaps with and touches its own waters and economic interests. The coming months will be critical in how T&T navigates this strategic terrain: whether it can maintain autonomy and protect its own interests, or whether it will be pulled more firmly into the orbit of competing powers.

Recent news on U.S.‑Venezuela‑Trinidad tensions.